Today, we can blame the market almost entirely on OIL and THE DOLLAR. Oil rose to a dime within $120.00 today before selling off and the dollar is becoming the PESO with the reading having hot $1.60 per EURO. Interestingly enough, the oil services stocks are not performing well in earnings season despite record prices. More importantly, today's stock market shows that the market is still in a state of flux, and it may have become a stock picker's market. Until this finally doesn't work, the trade is to buy when you feel worried and sell when you are feeling good. Below are today's unofficial market index closing levels:
Brinker International, Inc. (NYSE: EAT) saw shares rise by after the company narrowly bear earnings expectations. The company is one of "stocks to double" by the recession end, and cost cutting and capacity monitoring did more goodwill today than the earnings. Shares were up by almost 7% at $20.90 in the final minutes of the day.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Time Warner Telecom, Verigy and Brinker were today's noteworthy initiations:
Friedman Billings expects Time Warner Telecom (NASDAQ: TWTC) to post free cash flow growth above consensus expectations and believes carrier spending-concerns are overdone. The firm initiated shares with an Outperform rating and $20 target.
Oppenheimer initiated Verigy (NASDAQ: VRGY) with a Perform rating and $23 target, pointing to the company's tough year over year comps as PC unit growth slows in 2008 as well as its exposure to flash memory chips.
Brinker (NYSE: EAT) was assumed with a Neutral rating at Suntrust, as they expect Chili's to continue to be impacted by weak consumer spending.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Baird assumed Ulta Salon (NASDAQ: ULTA) with an Outperform rating and $18 target.
Lions Gate (NYSE: LGF) was initiated at Jefferies with a Hold rating and $10-$11 target.
Landstar System (NASDAQ: LSTR) was initiated with a Market Perform rating at Morgan Keegan.
Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) operates about 1,700 casual dining restaurants in the United States and Canada. Its Red Lobster (seafood), Olive Garden (Italian cuisine), LongHorn Steakhouse (steak), Bahama Breeze (Caribbean items) and Capital Grille (steak) chains cater to families, with mid-priced menu items and generally suburban locations. A small group of Seasons 52 restaurants feature a casual grill and wine bar concept. Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) are competitors.
The company pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 85 cents and revenues of $1.81 billion. Analysts had been looking for 82 cents and $1.80 billion. Management also guided FY08 EPS to about $2.71-$2.76 ($2.72 consensus) and FY08 revenues to about $6.63-$6.68 billion ($6.64B consensus). Raymond James subsequently upgraded the shares to "strong buy".
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Restaurant Sector, Blockbuster and Plexus were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Bear Stearns upgraded the Restaurant Sector to Market Weight from Underweight citing better investor sentiment following Fed rate cuts and the economic stimulus plan; upgraded shares include Brinker International (NYSE: EAT), Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) and Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI).
JP Morgan upgraded shares of Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) to Overweight from Neutral ahead of the company's Q4 results on March 6, as they believe the quarter will be at least in-line and 2008 guidance will be above Street expectations.
Plexus (NASDAQ: PLXS) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse as they believe current quarter sales and bookings are tracking ahead.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Maxwell Technologies (NASDAQ: MXWL) was upgraded to Market Perform from Market Underperform at JMP Securities.
The firm also raised Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) to Market Outperform from Market Perform.
Goldman Sachs added Allianz AG (NYSE: AZ) to its Conviction Buy List.
Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) operates about 1,700 casual dining restaurants in the United States and Canada. Its Red Lobster (seafood), Olive Garden (Italian cuisine), LongHorn Steakhouse (steak), Bahama Breeze (Caribbean items) and Capital Grille (steak) chains cater to families, with mid-priced menu items and generally suburban locations. A small group of Seasons 52 restaurants feature a casual grill and wine bar concept. Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) are competitors.
The company pleased investors last week, when it guided fiscal Q3 EPS to 83-85 cents. Analysts had been looking for 77 cents. Management also said it expected Y08 EPS of about $2.71-$2.76 ($2.66 consensus).
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that next to the consumer, this is the biggest problem facing the otherwise strong companies in this sector.
Doesn't it seem like another day where it is impossible to make money? We have earnings season without any sense that anybody's numbers can be raised. We have an ennui that comes from months of pounding and indecision, and we have stocks that can't seem to go up to save their lives.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it's still too early to get contrarian about the universal negativity on retail.
Squeeze?
DuPont (NYSE: DD) (Cramer's Take) better than expected. Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take) puts up numbers that don't seem bankruptish. We could have a day's respite from the gloom. We certainly are owed one, at least in Nasdaq land.
Plus, when you go out with people from the trading desks, you are overwhelmed by the negativity.
Last night at a buy-side/sell-side dinner, a smart guy I know who loves the short side tried to make a case for some down-and-out airlines and retailers. He's a price guy, meaning that he believes everything has a price and that you have to start looking at a Lowe's (LOW) here or a Macy's (M) because if you start buying now, put some on, you will be getting a pretty decent risk-reward ratio.
I thought people were going to throw things at him. He was immediately ridiculed as someone who didn't understand what's out there, the collapse of consumer spending as evidenced by Brinker's (NYSE: EAT) (Cramer's Take) Chili's, AT&T (NYSE: T) (Cramer's Take), Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) (Cramer's Take) and all of the other usual suspects Tuesday.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intuitive Surgical, Brinker and Circuit City were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Wachovia downgraded Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) to Market Perform from Outperform, as they view shares as fully valued and notes that the company may guide 2008 below consensus.
Brinker (NYSE:EAT) was downgraded to Underweight from Hold at KeyBanc following disappointing Q2 same-store-sales report and earnings.
Cowen downgraded Circuit City (NYSE:CC) to Neutral from Outperform, citing limited visibility into the timing of the company's turnaround.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Goldman removed EMC Corp (NYSE:EMC) from its Tech Framework Growth List and added Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) to its Pan-European Sell List.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Centene, Brinker International, Harmonic, Idex and Royal Dutch Shell were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Jefferies upgraded shares of Centene Corporation (NYSE: CNC) to Buy from Hold as they expect the company is benefiting from above 20% revenue growth next year and SG&A leverage opportunity over the next 12–18 months.
Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) to Outperform from Peer Perform as they believe Brinker's turnaround efforts can enhance shareholder value.
Friedman Billings raised shares of Harmonic (NASDAQ: HLIT) to Outperform from Market Perform based on the favorable outlook for cable and satellite spending on HD video and other projects.
The firm also upgraded Idex Corporation (NYSE: IEX) to Outperform from Market Perform, citing the company's positive 2008 outlook and solid end markets.
CIBC upgraded J. Crew Group (NYSE: JCG) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer and Parker Hannifin (NYSE: PH) to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer.
An Orlando outfit became the number one casual dining operator in North America by offering multiple dining experiences to the critical family crowd.
Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) operates more than 1,300 casual dining restaurants in the United States and Canada. Its Red Lobster (seafood), Olive Garden (Italian cuisine) and Bahama Breeze (Caribbean items) chains cater to families, with mid-priced menu items and suburban locations. A small group of Seasons 52 restaurants feature a casual grill and wine bar concept. Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) are competitors.
The company pleased investors last month, when it reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 73 cents and revenues of $1.47 billion. Analysts had been expecting 70 cents and $1.45 billion. Management also guided FY08 revenues to about $6.25-6.31 billion, versus consensus of $6.08 billion. The company confirmed that it plans to buy back $125-175 million of its common stock in FY08.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Starbucks Corporation, Brinker, Healthways and Fluor were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Banc of America downgraded Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) to Sell from Neutral, and lowered their target to $23 from $27, as they see downside risk to estimates due to slower growth. The firm is concerned that expectations for a near-term recovery are too high.
Goldman downgraded Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) to Sell from Neutral citing macro economic pressure on sales.
Credit Suisse downgraded Healthways Inc (NASDAQ: HWAY) to Neutral from Outperform on valuation.
Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Morgan Joseph on valuation.
There is a well-known U.S. restaurant chain that was founded by a traveling salesman, who thought such places should offer family-friendly environments and good country cooking. He got it right.
CBRL Group (NASDAQ: CBRL) operates 564 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store restaurants and gift shops in 41 states. The restaurants offer breakfast, lunch and dinner menus, featuring home-style comfort foods. The associated retail stores offer a variety of decorative, gift and food items. Competitors include Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) and Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI).
The firm pleased investors earlier in the week, when it reported solid results for its fiscal fourth quarter and issued in-line guidance for FY08. The board subsequently boosted the quarterly dividend by 29% and declared a one million share buyback program. The stock popped on the quarterly report and has since moved into a bullish "pennant" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.
Brokers recommend the issue with two "strong buys", ten "holds" and one "sell". The CBRL P/E ratio (15.25), PEG ratio (1.27), Price to Sales ratio (0.42), Price to Cash Flow ratio (7.44), Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (7.15), EPS Growth rate (35.29%) and Return on Equity (37.39%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions hold about 95% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 400 MidCap Index. Over the past twelve months, it has traded between $35.75 and $50.74. A stop-loss of $35.75 looks good here.
Although they spent most of the day in the green the indexes gave up ground through most of the session to close just in the red.
The NYSE had volume of 3.6 billion shares with 1,612 shares advancing while 1,706 declined for a loss of 6.18 points to close at 9,428.86. On the NASDAQ, 2.2 billion shares traded, 1,426 advanced and 1,685 declined for a loss of -2.65 to 2,542.24.
EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) rose $1.33 (8%) to $19.05; ahead of it's subsidiary VMware making its debut on the NYSE tomorrow in an IPO that analysts are predicting will be big. EMC will retain 90% of the shares. This is likely the reason for the active calls as EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) saw heavy volume on the August 19 calls (EMCHT) with over 56,000 options trading.
In options there were 5.4 million puts and 5.8 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 0.92. The CBOE Volatility Index has been high closing today at 26.57. This is the fear indicator of the market. Not only is the index up, but options on the index are high with the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (NASDAQ: $VIX) moving volume on the August 25 calls (VIXHE) with over 35,000 contracts.
Other stocks with active options include State Street Boston (NYSE: STT) saw heavy volume on the November 75 calls (STTKO) with over 60,000 options trading. Most of the active puts were on the indexes and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: IWM) had volume on the August 78 puts (IOWTZ) with over 86,000 options trading.
Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Red Lion Hotels (RLH), Constellation Energy (CEP), Brinker Int'l (EAT), Nvidia (NVDA) and InfoSpace (INSP) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Baird upgraded Red Lion Hotels (NYSE: RLH) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, brand expansion progress and takeover potential.
Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup based on higher cash flow expectations and valuation.
JP Morgan upgraded Brinker (NYSE: EAT) to Overweight from Neutral, and sees potential upside from slower unit development and a possible Mac Grill sale.
BMO Capital upgraded Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) to Outperform from Market Perform following a strong second quarter.
Stanford upgraded InfoSpace (NASDAQ: INSP) to Hold from Sell on valuation; They consider the core online segments looks to be priced into the stock and downside support is given with tax credits and the cash balance...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Citigroup raised Cox Radio (NYSE: CXR) to Hold from Sell.
JP Morgan upgraded shares of PepsiAmericas (NYSE: PAS) to Neutral from Underweight.
Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Emulex (NYSE: ELX) to Outperform from Market Perform.
DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) was raised to Buy from Hold at Gabelli.
Seagate (NYSE: STX) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that next to the consumer, this is the biggest problem facing the otherwise strong companies in this sector.
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guidance for FY08. The board subsequently boosted the quarterly dividend by 29% and declared a one million share buyback program. The stock popped on the quarterly report and has since moved into a bullish "pennant" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.
Although they spent most of the day in the green the indexes gave up ground through most of the session to close just in the red. 
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